Published: November 5, 2011 3:00 a.m. City leads U.S. in job growth Report posted on financial website Sherry Slater | The Journal Gazette FORT WAYNE – Fort Wayne’s metropolitan area had the fastest job growth in the past year from among the nation’s 100 largest metro areas. Merrill Goozner, a journalist in Washington, made the...
As a result of all of the analysis Dr Seifried presented at this year’s Star Financial Economic Forum, he predicted that mortgage rates may even go lower in the next year. His prediction was that 30 year mortgages could drop to 3%.
Part of the problem facing the U. S. economy is a natural result of the aging of our population. Households from 40-49 years of age tend to accumulate wealth and those from age 60-69 tend begin to consume their wealth. In fact, if driven completely on this factor alone the stock market would be expected to drop 13% per year.
The 2007-2009 recession has been deemed a “balance sheet” recession because people and companies have been getting their balance sheets in order. The good news is this will position us for a much more robust recovery when it arrives. Current projections are that GDP will be 2.5 to 2.9 and unemployment will be 8.1% in 2012.
Dr Seified discussed the impact of oil on the economy, pointing out that when oil is over $140 per barrel it kills the economy and under $75 per barrel it revs it up. In fact, for every 1% raise in oil prices, GDP drops .5%!
Housing has lead the U. S. into every previous economic recovery. Housing is traditionally 5% of GDP, yet it is currently only 2.2%. If population grows 1%, then housing prices follow with a 1% increase. Economists are looking for housing starts to return to 1 million units and restore economic growth.
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